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The fiscal space generated in the 2004-05 to 2007-08 period, following the Fiscal Responsibility Budget Management Act (FRBMA) mandate, mitigated on effects of global financial and economic crisis in 2008-09 through an expansionary fiscal stance to boost aggregate demand. Traditionally, assessment of public finances was confined to analysis of fiscal indicators, but the macro-economy-wide impact of the crisis underscored the importance of accounts data in tandem in such assessments.
In advanced economies, the operation of automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policies pursued to obviate the adverse impact of the global financial and economic crisis was made possible by the space available and the largely cyclical nature of the fiscal deficit. In India, the rapid and significant fiscal consolidation achieved in the post-FRBMA period up to 2007-08 was indeed an important achievement that enabled greater fiscal space for a macro-economic policy stance to counteract the impact of the global economic crisis. As a proportion of the GDP, the reductions in fiscal deficit in the period 2003-04 to 2007-08 were made possible in equal measure by higher tax revenues and expenditure compression. This facilitated use of both tax and expenditure measures in the expansionary fiscal policies to boost demand. As such, the progress in fiscal consolidation in India is different from the typical models elsewhere, which are driven purely by expenditure compression.
As the impact of the crisis continued through 2009-10, the expansionary fiscal stance was continued in the Budget for 2009-10. Given the relative levels of shares of private final consumption expenditure and government consumption expenditure, such expansion could only be a short-term measure and the Medium Term Fiscal Policy Statement presented along with the Budget for 2009-10 favoured a resumption of the fiscal consolidation process, albeit a gradual one, with fiscal deficit declining to 5.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 4.0 per cent of the GDP in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively. In its report, the thirteenth Finance Commission has traced the path of fiscal consolidation for the Centre and States. The resumption of the path of fiscal prudence would complement the recovery process in the near term and lay the foundation for reviving the growth momentum in the long term.
A low and stagnant tax-GDP ratio characterized Central government revenues for a considerable period since 1990-91. This reflected in part the reform of the tax structure through lower rates in indirect taxes and the levels of the tax base. The rapid growth momentum in the post-FRBMA period helped change the composition of taxes, deepen the process of rationalization of taxes and widen the base. As a proportion of gross tax revenue, direct taxes rose from a level of 19.1 per cent in 1990-91 to reach 49.9 per cent in 2007-08; in 2008-09, they were at 55.5 per cent.
As a proportion of GDP, total expenditure fell from a level of 17.1 per cent in 2003-04 to 14.4 per cent in 2007-08, largely driven by the steep fall in capital expenditure. Total expenditure was placed at Rs 8,81,469 crore in 2008-09, which implied a growth of 23.7 per cent over 2007-08 levels and 17.4 per cent over that assumed in 2008-09. The front loading of Plan expenditure was evident in the rise in its proportion to the GDP from a level of 4.1 per cent in 2007-08 to 4.9 per cent in 2008-09. Thus, the reversal in major fiscal deficit indicators in 2008-09 and 2009-10 was a policy-driven stimulus to counter the demand slowdown.
In the post-FRBMA period (2004-05 to 2007-08), average annual/compound growth in total expenditure was 11.2 per cent, which compared favourably with the 12.2 per cent in the previous four years. Within total expenditure, growth in capital expenditure was again lower than that in revenue expenditure. Adjusting for one-off distortions in capital expenditure, like redemption of securities of the National Small Savings Fund in 2004-05 and the expenditure on acquisition of State Bank of India (SBI) shares from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), growth in capital expenditure was more stable. While traditionally assessment of the trends in expenditure, particularly in the context of the fiscal consolidation process, had focused on the compression in terms of proportions of GDP, in view of the policy-driven expansion process it would be useful to understand the magnitude and direction of the expansion. In 2008-09 and 2009-10, the increase in total expenditure was of the order of 23.7 per cent and 43.2 per cent, respectively, over the levels in 2007-08. In 2008-09, the main components of expenditure significantly higher than their 2007-08 levels were major subsidies, social services, Plan expenditure and economic services. In 2009-10, the major components of the expansion were interest payments, defence, social services and economic services.
To an extent, rising interest payments reflect past consumption and do not contribute to current productive uses and are primarily tax financed. They are a drag on the present generation. Inter-generational equity concerns were one of the key objectives of institutionalizing the fiscal consolidation process in the form of the FRBMA. Interest payments appropriated substantial proportions of revenue receipts and the efforts in the FRBMA period were to reduce the level of deficits and incremental assumption of debt to contain the interest burden. Interest payments as a proportion of revenue receipts declined from a level of 52.1 per cent in 1998-99 to a level of 31.6 per cent in 2007-08. They were at the 35 per cent level in 2008-09 and were budgeted at 36.7 per cent in 2009-10. The rise in the levels of gross market borrowings in 2008-09 and 2009-10 has resulted in a reversal of the trend towards fall in average cost of borrowings.
The global commodity price shock (particularly in crude petroleum) that preceded the global financial crisis in 2008-09 led to a burgeoning of the subsidy bill and a sharp rise in the below-the line issuance of bonds to oil and fertilizer companies. As a proportion of GDP, major budgetary subsidies rose from 1.6 per cent in 2003-04 to 2.2 per cent in 2008-09 and were budgeted at 1.7 per cent in 2009-10. Besides, the above below-the-line issuance of oil and fertilizer bonds was of the order of 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2008-09. The Budget for 2009-10, recognizing the importance of institutional reforms, announced the intention to move towards a nutrient-based subsidy regime in respect of fertilizers and ultimately towards direct cash transfers and the setting up of an expert to advise on a viable and sustainable system of pricing for petroleum products.
Finances of State governments
Following the adoption of Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs), the combined finances of the States exhibited a faster than anticipated turnaround in 2005-06, with the level of fiscal deficit at 2.4 per cent of the GDP. There were, however, large variations amongst States, with Assam having a fiscal surplus of 0.6 per cent of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) and Mizoram having a high fiscal deficit of 14.7 per cent of the GSDP in 2005-06. States combined posted a revenue surplus in 2006-07. The record of fiscal consolidation of the States combined was indeed remarkable and was facilitated by the growth in their own revenues following the successful adoption of State-level Value-Added Tax (VAT), the buoyancy in Central taxes, the higher levels of transfers and the scheme of Debt Consolidation and Waiver linked to fiscal consolidation.
In 2008-09, there was a growth of 15.3 per cent in States’ own tax revenues and 26.6 per cent in non-tax receipts. However, with higher levels of disbursements, which grew by 26 per cent, fiscal deficit went up to a level of 2.6 per cent of the GDP but was still well below the 3.0 per cent level mandated by the FRLs. With the relaxation in State-level fiscal targets to obviate the adverse impact of the global crisis, revenue deficit of 0.6 per cent of the GDP and fiscal deficit of 3.2 per cent of the GDP was budgeted in 2009-10.
The Debt Consolidation and Relief Facility (DCRF) has two components: (i) consolidation of Central loans (from the Ministry of Finance) contracted till March 31, 2004 and outstanding as on March 31, 2005 and (ii) provision of interest relief and grant of debt waiver to States based on their fiscal performance. Consolidation of Central loans has given interest relief to States. Debt waiver is granted to States based on their fiscal performance, for which an assessment is made annually. Benefits under the DCRF helped States by easing debt and interest pressures and also incentivized States to follow the path of fiscal correction.
So far, Central loans to 26 out of 28 States have been consolidated to the extent of Rs 1,13,601.1 crore. From 2005 to 2009, States have been granted debt waivers for an aggregate amount of Rs 22,039.4 crore and interest relief of Rs 18,688.5 crore.
Conclusion
Typically, the fiscal responsibility rules world over are anchored in balanced budget and debt targets with clear differences in framework across advanced economies and developing countries. In India, under the FRBMA, the rule focused on incremental assumption of liabilities. By and large this rule was adhered to in the post-FRBMA period; since 2008-09, there has been a rise in the assumption of net incremental liabilities as a result of the expansionary fiscal policy stance. As a result, with the revised GDP series (2004-05) released by the CSO, the ratio of outstanding liabilities to the GDP after falling from a level of 61.6 per cent in 2004-05 to 56.3 per cent in 2008-09, has risen marginally to 56.7 per cent in 2009-10. Internal debt, mainly market borrowings, continues to be the main component of outstanding liabilities.
The full picture of public finances and their impact on the macro-economy is best analysed through the levels of deficits in the consolidated General Government. As a proportion of the GDP, revenue receipts of the consolidated General Government rose from a level of 19.0 per cent in 2004-05 to reach a level of 21.2 per cent in 2007-08. They were budgeted at 20.5 per cent in 2009-10. With total disbursements remaining at more or less the same levels in four years ending 2007-08, the combined revenue and fiscal deficit came down. In fact, the combined levels of deficit were much lower than the levels (sum of Centre and States) mandated by the FRBMA and State-level FRLs. Reflecting the overall expansion to stimulate demand, fiscal and revenue deficit for 2009-10 is placed at 9.7 and 5.2 per cent of the GDP.
